Via Twitter last night, I was able to take a peek at the new iPhone being released today. I’m not 100% sure if this is accurate or just an artist’s rendering, but if so, we’re in for a fun WWDC today:

I can’t wait to give Apple more money. My iPhone 3G contract is up, and I’m ready to throw down on a 64GB black iPhone. I’ll definitely be waiting in line for one!

I know this because it was unnecessarily complicated to install (update iTunes to 9.0.1, connect iPhone, download software update, wait for the iPhone to install, then restart) and it seemed to have taken forever to finally roll out.

Now, I understand that iPhone users consume more data than other smartphone users, but there really is no reason why, when I’ve had to use the AT&T 3G Network to email photos to friends and family, that I couldn’t have used that same bandwidth to send a MMS instead.

I’m so used to MMS workarounds with other iPhone-toting friends that using the MMS function is going to take a seismic shift in photo-sharing philosophy. That said, I’m not really sure how much I’m going to even use MMS – now that I have the Flickr application for the iPhone (a must download, by the way), there’s really no need to send a photo to one person, when I can upload one photo and share the link with everyone.

So what took this update so long?

The vitals:

1. I’m running version 5A345 of the iPhone 2.0 software.
2. I’m running it on a 16GB iPhone 3G that I purchased on launch day.
3. I’ve downloaded every application from the App Store on my iPhone, not through iTunes.
4. The problem persists ONLY with non-native (as in downloaded from the App Store) applications.  All the applications that shipped with the iPhone 2.0 software are unaffected.

Here’s what’s happening:

1. I sync the iPhone 3G to add songs, movies, whatever.
2. When the sync/charge is complete, I’ll disconnect the phone and go about my day.
3. So I’ll be out and about, and all of a sudden need to do something with an Application I downloaded from the App Store.
4. I’ll tap what I want to use and then the App will launch…
5. … but then promptly quit, returning me to the home screen.
6. I say “f*ck it” and find the closest bar and have a beer.

There are a few steps that I’ve taken to remedy this unfortunate situation:

1. I plugged my iPhone 3G in to my Mac and launched iTunes.
2. I clicked the big, ugly “Restore” button and downloaded the latest and greatest iPhone 2.0 build.
3. I prayed to the Flying Spaghetti Monster that this would work.
4. I started a sync of my music, Safari bookmarks and videos.

So here I am… tapped out from praying to his noodly greatness waiting to sync all of my music to the phone.  I’ll edit the post if this works with the good news!

Just a quick update that we’ve successfully uploaded the app to the iTunes Store, and the status message “In Review” indicates that the Apple team is conducting their testing procedures.  We have not been provided with an ETA — so it could get approved at any time.

Rest assured, I’ll be leaping out of my skin to get the FREE WordPress application for the iPhone.

For a sneak peek, check out the official WordPress iPhone application gallery.

When I hung up the phone, I started to run the numbers:

Kindle MSRP:  $399.00

Subscriptions, per month:

• Cost per syndicated blog: up to $.99
• Cost per newspaper: $9.99 – $13.99 (major papers)
• Cost per magazine: $1.25 – $2.49 (major magazines)
• Cost per book: $9.99

It just didn’t add up.  I couldn’t figure out how these devices would actually sell.  You pay $400 for the privilege to lug around a fairly ugly 4-color grayscale device that displays blog feeds, newspapers, magazines and books that you still have to pay for?  No thanks.  The Kindle is, to all intents and purposes, a one-dimensional device.  A one-dimensional device with a hefty price tag.

You can imagine my surprise when I saw a Michael Arrington post on TechCruch, where Citigroup Analyst Mark Mahaney forecasted that Amazon could generate $400M to $750M in revenue from the Kindle by 2010.

Those figures would represent roughly 1% – 3% of Amazon’s total yearly revenue.

In my humble opinion, there’s no way that Amazon will sell that many Kindles and generate that kind of revenue.  

No. Way.  

For starters, there’s the subscription-based model.  While I can certainly understand why someone would want to load up a Kindle with blog feeds, newspapers and e-books (really, who are we trying to fool?), the recurring cost becomes a serious barrier after months of use.

Just looking at my Google Reader, I subscribe to about 60 blogs.  Take that times $.99, and I’m suddenly spending $59.40 per month to read things I already get for free.  Keep in mind this is only blog usage.  Let’s say I want to order the new Kurt Vonnegut book at $9.99 and read the New York Times at $13.99 per month in addition to the blog feeds… I would have just spent $482.38 ($83.38 for the content and $399.00 for the Kindle) in the first month of owning the device, of which $73.39 was subscription-based.  Subscriptions that I could have pulled up on an iPhone (in color, no less) for the flat-rate cost of the rate plan and iPhone.  

But what of this Apple technology, you say?

In order to make the “up to $750M!” prediction somewhat valid, Citigroup’s Mahaney applied some *extremely* fuzzy logic, as pointed out by Arrington:

Citi took this indirect sales data and built a model based on the adoption curve of the iPod “Here’s what’s known. Launched in CQ4:01, the iPod went from 129,000 unit sales in its first quarter to becoming a mass market phenomenon, with a current installed base of approximately 100MM.”

They apply similar adoption rates to the Kindle that the iPod saw (starting at a much lower base: 129,000 iPods v. 10,000 – 30,000 Kindles in first three months on the market) and then discount the entire model by 50% – 75% to hedge risk in coming up with the three year revenue model. “So perhaps, if Amazon executes right with its Kindle product and marketing strategy, the iPod analogy for the Kindle won’t be too far stretched,” Mahaney says.